Most protesters I’ve seen actually have been wearing masks and keeping personal hand sanitizer on them. Not saying it completely stops the spread, but at least they are trying to be safe while protesting injustices.
@Slampire Poetry, they’re also yelling and really close together. But more telling is the spike in the number of cases starting 4-5 days after the start of everything.
@almightysamuel, clearly he has taken his mother f*cking nap because I haven’t and I don’t understand a mother f*cking thing he’s saying!
F*cking nerds and their f*cking naps.
I wish I could get a f*cking nap...all I get is the god damned f*cking.
@Hot Coffee, the cases 4-5 days after the racial protest are not related. It’s more from opening up two weeks ago AND those people protesting for haircuts. The racial protest exposure cases will happen in another week or so
@almightysamuel, now I don’t feel special anymore... I thought you only loved me, talking dirty to Hot Coffee too? You slut!
@almightysamuel, there we go! I’m special again
@almightysamuel, is this like a bit or something or are you actually an ass?
@seeUpee, I heard he talks like that to everyone when you aren’t looking, such a slut
@Natural Sarcasm , really? He does? Well thank you... now I don’t feel special again... boooooo
@SchroedingerPussPuss, no, the incubation time is 4-6 days, the massive spike directly correlates with the protests and riots.
The 10 to 14 day figures are the recommended quarantine time, which is calculated by doubling the mean incubation time before symptoms start. The early numbers (from February) put the incubation at 7 days. This was from small sample sizes, mostly from Europe. As testing has increased in availability and accuracy the number has been refined and I believe the incubation is now 4.6 days in the USA. That said, 14 is nice and round and easy to remember so not too much effort is put forward to correct misunderstanding about this (mostly because it’s better to have sick people isolate longer rather than the minimum safe time, quarantine times are designed to capture incubation times 3 standard deviations above the mean, I think)
So basically, look for spikes about 5 days after big gatherings.
@seeUpee, I think you’re still his favorite
@Medic135, yes to both? I fully support people’s right to be an ass. I really can’t complain because I can be an ass myself.
@almightysamuel, duuuuuuude, I’m totally a nerd, and sometimes a troll. You sound like an angry drunk, pretty epic, actually.
@Hot Coffee, I’m gonna point something out here. There’s another factor to consider. Rate of infection. This being how many people can be made sick on average by one infected person, and how many that could make sick over time. So, the two major variables to consider are 1. The average rate of infection with no protection, and 2. The amount of mitigation of spread on average by precautionary measures.
Im having a difficult time finding the current number for the first variable, and last I heard it was 3.0. That means one person infects 3 others on average.
The second variable have adjusted wildly, and is difficult to pinpoint. We’ll say face masks and hand sanitizer reduce the rate by 33%, or down to 2.0. Most info I found has said higher numbers, but we’ll lowball for this.
So if one infects three with no protection....
1-3, 4-12, 16-48, 64-192, 256-768, 1024-3072, 4096-12288, 16384-49152, 65536-196608, 262144-786432.
If we consider 10 growth cycles, that’d mean, 1048576. That’s rather high, yes. Obviously not considering our current case growth rate, but there’s a lot more variables as well. We’ll stick to our example set variables for the moment.
Now, with the 33% reduction via protection...
1-2, 3-6, 9-18, 27-54, 81-162, 243-486, 729-1458, 2187-4374, 6561-13122, 19683-39366.
59,049. That is far less than with no protection. Only 5.63% of it to be precise.
So while you’re going on about how the yelling and such means they’re causing a huge spike, the simple fact even some protection slows down the process that much, coupled with their use of said protection, means they are likely not the major contributing factor to the spike in cases.
@Cloverleaf, well, you made a lot of assumptions. If those are correct you conclusion is valid, however there’s another big factor that you missed: size of the crowds.
The reopen protests were microscopic relative to the numbers of people at the Floyd protests and antifa riots.
@Cloverleaf, dude, did you just science yourself out of your own argument? We're talking about a difference in protest size roughly 10-15 maybe 20× across the US. And even that small group back then was considered intolerable. You had people from out of start coming in and going back to spread it more. These past few days it was reported some where in the ball park of 77 covid checking stations was burned down. Not to mention contact settlements like the chaz and the convicts being released in places like new york. The police arrested a guy 400 something times cause they can't detain him.
I know I started to ramble, when you put the time and effort into presenting an argument. My problem is, that the numbers don't matter. They'll matter closer to the election time, and all of the new cases will be blamed on getting a hair cut.
This is to infuriating.
You're blaming haircuts right now.
Nearly 200 protesters
1000+ protesters each in multiple cities Across the Nation.
@almightysamuel, you sound like a neckbeard with an Oedipus complex.
@Your Waifu, that’s a funny idea
@Your Waifu, is funny that twice you mentioned neckbeard... probably four months I haven’t heard that word
@Hot Coffee, oh, you mean exactly two weeks after memorial day weekend? Which is exactly how long the virus takes to incubate in a human before it shows symptoms? Yeah, weird how that timing worked out...
@Hot Coffee, the 4-5 days isn't a determined figure by the CDC. There are arguments by the WHO that it has a 2 week incubation and that's why they went with that. Better to guess long than short. No one has been able to find a specific time frame for this, and there's talk of different body conditions wildly changing incubation which is what's throwing off the numbers
@Hot Coffee, The CDC maintains it has an incubation period of 2-14 days and a rise in cases is likely stemming from infections from up to 2 weeks previous. I would refrain from using “directly correlates” regarding this as every day we learn something new or something we thought we knew changes with this thing. Nothing is certain.
@almightysamuel, like we already established yesterday, you don't have the experience to do that. Why don't you go pine over your dad some more?
@Hot Coffee, 2 week period of incubation
@SchroedingerPussPuss, again. It’s not about getting a haircut. It’s about a small business owner being forced out of work. It’s time for you to quit being led around by your nose. Try thinking for yourself for once in your life. It’s quite liberating.
@SchroedingerPussPuss, people weren't protesting for haircuts, they were protesting because they were forced to watch their life savings, businesses, and jobs disappear more and more as the quarantine continued. It's disgusting that you would just dismiss other people's struggles like that and then put the blame of the new spike of rona cases on them even though it's been weeks.
@Medic135, Did his account vanish, or did I walk in after a mass hallucination? Lots of comments (on various posts) aimed at the same person - but no posts by that person.
@Nellybert , ..... my God
@Nellybert , They were there. I saw them, and even down voted
some, but now they aren't. Maybe his account was banned/deleted?
@Hot Coffee, it’s not antifa, the FBI already stated there is no evidence of it being them and said that it is alt right groups causing the violence, and the police themselves
@Hot Coffee, that's average time of 5 to 6 days for symptoms to appear that means some are longer and some are shorter. that's why the say 14 days to ensure that it was the longest possible time to develop symptoms.
@Landrover, wow. If you genuinely believe this, the United States is fücked. Well and truly.
I’m genuinely curious what your opinions are on CNN are: do they come across as moderate leaning right to you?
You and I have drastically different lived experience.
Just look up the Minneapolis autozone black umbrella white guy video. Go look at the antifa Twitter accounts.
@jconnor1, That sounds like something a person who’d been hallucinating would say....
@Landrover, oooh the boogeyman did it! Alt-right is such a bûllshît dodge. Antifa absolutely is causing violence. Grow up
@Hot Coffee, So far, mass demonstrations against police brutality don’t seem to have significantly increased the risk of resurgence in large northern cities, according to data modelers. The data reflects the impact of Memorial Day weekend travel, which is coming into focus in popular vacation destinations across the South.
@Zorb, I don’t know what source you’re looking at, but if you go to the CDC website and look at the reported cases you’ll see a small spike 4-6 days after Memorial Day then a large sustained rise in cases starting around June 4 and they’ve stayed up. Protests are ongoing, though thankfully the rioting has subsided.
Furthermore, have you seen photos from the protest? People are packed in. Social distancing is the single most important tool in preventing COVID19 spread.
Lastly, Memorial Day was almost a month ago, and according to the CDC we’re in a sustained spike, and there are ongoing protests with 1000s of people crowding together.
I recommend you ignore those “modelers” and look at the source data yourself.
@Hot Coffee, came from COVID-Lab,an interdisciplinary team from Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and the University of Pennsylvania, alongside global experts, who track and project the COVID-19 epidemic across 517 counties with active outbreaks as it spreads across the United States, accounting for daily temperatures, social distancing and population density.
@Nellybert , omg... i spent like 25 minutes trying to find the dudes comments.... wow i wish i saw yours alot sooner
MSM will find a way.